This proposal in its current form will HALT OpenGov!
Support:
The mission to raise the barrier for OpenGov ref submissions is LONG overdue!
This is well achieved by the suggestions to:
Increase the Submission Deposit
Increase Decision Deposits
Decrease Max Deciding refs per Track
Lowering friction for Referendum Canceller
Increase the minimum Support Turn-out
Dissent:
Increase the minimum Support Turn-out
I suggest this parameter will have no impact on reducing ref submissions (why would it?) and may even DECREASE voter participation.
Why?
Because these thresholds proposed are FAR OUTSIDE Support Turn-out today!
Under the proposed changes, the majority of refs (even those with 100% AYE) will fail - Grinding OpenGov to a halt.
Problems with grinding OpenGov to a Halt:
- Voter apathy - why vote if nothing gets passed?
- Proposer apathy - why propose (even with support) if failure is certain?
- Maintenance Neglect - Operational spends suspended
- Centralization - Refs will only get passed with Mega holder support or expedited bounty structures installed by the same.
The Reality of High Support Turn-out
Here’s how the past 20 Approved refs on each track would have faired under the proposed support thresholds:
Treasurer Track - Proposed 1.5% turnout
Sheet
We can see that while 85% of refs achieved >75% support only 20% would pass.
Big Spender Track - Proposed 1% turnout
Sheet
We can see that while 80% of refs achieved >75% support only 15% would pass.
Medium Spender Track - Proposed 1% turnout
Sheet
We can see that while 40% of refs achieved >75% support 0% would pass.
Small Spender Track - Proposed 0.5% turnout
Sheet
We can see that while 70% of refs achieved >75% support only 55% would pass.
How Support Turn-out Thresholds COULD help:
We can see the problem of low-quality proposals slipping through truly lies on the Medium Spender track!
We observe that a whopping 60% of refs that passed had <75% AYE!
Interestingly 75% of refs below 75% AYE have <0.5% Support Turn-out!
This suggests refs without a clear support of AYE or NAY may have many non-voters, allowing narrow passes with low Support Turn-out.
A Different Solution with Better Outcomes:
We see that for each of the tracks we have the following Support Turn-out for the last 20 refs:
Treasurer - 0.98%
Big Spender - 0.66%
Med Spender - 0.45%
Small Spender - 0.55%
So we could attempt to stimulate activity with:
Treasurer - 1%
Big Spender - 0.75%
Med Spender - 0.6%
Small Spender - 0.6%
We should then continue to raise Support Turn-out thresholds as participation increases.
In this way we solve the low-quality slip-throughs on Medium Spender without grinding the whole thing to a halt!
Credit to @anaelleltd for flagging some of these thoughts in her comment above.